By Greg Oehler,
Broker/Owner of GMAC Real Estate FredericksburgLet us take a moment to reflect on our real estate data in 2008 as compared to 2006 and 2007. First off is a look at total sales in Gillespie County. This is all types of property, including residential, unimproved land, and commercial properties.
There was a decline in the number of properties sold over the three year period. In 2006, there were 599 properties sold; there were 406 sold in 2007, and 349 sold in 2008, a decline of almost 42% over the three years.
In terms of total dollars, sales in 2008 were almost $41 million ($40,888 million) less than sales in 2006. The Days on Market (”DOM”) increased about 10% and the average price per property increased about 22%. In short, prices are increasing, but there are fewer sales and they are taking longer to happen. As Sellers realize the additional costs of holding properties (insurance, taxes, maintenance and repairs, etc.) for longer marketing periods, this may put downward pressure on List Prices in 2009/2010.
| 2008 MLS Sales (all property types)
349 Sales in Gillespie County 1/1/2008 - 12/31/2008 |
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $32,500 | $3,978,924 | $317,674 | $200,000 | $110,868,210 |
| Selling Price | $28,500 | $3,000,000 | $291,522 | $190,000 | $101,741,068 |
| List/Sold(%) | 41.78% | 148.28% | 93.70% | 94.77% | – |
| Days on Market | 1 | 1632 | 242 | 189 | – |
| 2007 MLS Sales (all property types)
406 Sales in Gillespie County 1/1/2007 - 12/31/2007 |
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $6,000 | $3,199,000 | $287,280 | $199,000 | $116,635,578 |
| Selling Price | $4,500 | $2,800,000 | $270,946 | $188,750 | $110,003,994 |
| List/Sold(%) | 56.01% | 105.10% | 94.75% | 96.21% | – |
| Days on Market | 16 | 2493 | 223 | 149 | – |
| 2006 MLS Sales (all property types)
599 Sales in Gillespie County 1/1/2006 - 12/31/2006 |
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $12,500 | $4,950,000 | $251,969 | $169,500 | $150,929,635 |
| Selling Price | $10,000 | $4,500,000 | $238,112 | $162,500 | $142,629,059 |
| List/Sold(%) | 33.33% | 134.45% | 95.88% | 97.55% | – |
| Days on Market | 194 | 2015 | 219 | 143 | – |
Next, I broke down the Residential Sales data for homes IN THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG.
There was a decline in the number of Residential properties sold over the three year period. In 2006, there were 193 homes sold; there were 154 homes sold in 2007, and 130 homes sold in 2008, a decline of almost 33% over the three years.
In terms of total dollars, home sales in 2008 were over $13 million ($13.211 million) less than sales in 2006. The Days on Market (”DOM”) increased about 44 days or almost 35%. Individual home prices rose in 2006 and declined in 2007, but the net result over the three year period was an increase in the Average Sales price from $224,378 to $231,488, an increase of about $7,100 or 3%.
In short, prices increased (from 2006 to 2008), but there are fewer sales and they are taking longer to happen. This is probably indicative of Sellers realizing that holding out for the top price is not necessarily worth the additional holding costs (insurance, taxes, maintenance and repairs, etc.) incurred over longer marketing periods and is likely to put more downward pressure on List Prices in 2009/2010.
| 2008 MLS Sales (Residential)
130 Sales in City of Fbg 1/1/2008 - 12/31/2008 |
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $88,500 | $645,000 | $244,258 | $215,000 | $31,753,587 |
| Selling Price | $67,000 | $600,000 | $231,488 | $200,750 | $30,093,445 |
| List/Sold(%) | 74.86% | 103.77% | 94.71% | 95.62% | – |
| Days on Market | 1 | 579 | 171 | 147 | – |
| 2007 MLS Sales (Residential)
154 Sales in City of Fbg 1/1/2007 - 12/31/2007 |
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $74,000 | $599,000 | $246,807 | $221,095 | $38,008,263 |
| Selling Price | $70,000 | $589,000 | $236,214 | $218,000 | $36,376,983 |
| List/Sold(%) | 56.01% | 104.49% | 95.59% | 96.81% | – |
| Days on Market | 16 | 886 | 149 | 117 | – |
| 2006 MLS Sales (Residential)
193 Sales in City of Fbg 1/1/2006 - 12/31/2006 |
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $81,900 | $1,350,000 | $232,182 | $212,500 | $44,811,161 |
| Selling Price | $77,000 | $1,300,000 | $224,378 | $207,500 | $43,304,931 |
| List/Sold(%) | 77.08% | 104.12% | 96.90% | 98.08% | – |
| Days on Market | 0 | 1015 | 127 | 82 | – |
I will dissect more components of our 2008 market (acreage properties, residential lot sales, and commercial sales) in a subsequent analysis. I think you will find some interesting and dynamic market changes in these components.
As always, we are ready to help with your real estate needs. The resource used for data presented here was derived from the Gillespie County MLS and is believed to be reliable, but specifically not guaranteed. As someone who is in the market on a daily basis, the results “feel” to be inline with market logic, but readers should do their own due diligence and may want to use additional data resources for their information prior to making any business decision.
I should also point out something about the “DOM” or Days on Market numbers used in this report. Because MLS data does not track and combine the marketing times a property may have if it moves from Realtor A to Realtor B, and because the MLS does not combine the marketing times when a listing expires (is left off the market for a while) and is then renewed, the DOM tends to be UNDERSTATED. Actual DOMs per listing may be higher than stated on individual listings; however, the change in the DOM from one year to the next should be more reliable than the average DOM per listing.
Good luck in 2009 and be watching for more real estate data forthcoming.
Keep checking The Burg for more market statistics to come or stop for a visit and we can do some custom design analysis for your purchase or sale needs. We are happy to be of assistance. You can reach us at (830) 997-6123 or online at www.FbgLiving.com
To read more Fredericksburg real estate news, analysis & insight, visit The Burg online.
The Premier Service Diamond award will be presented to Oehler and Brookshire by GMAC Home Services’ President and CEO John Bearden at the company’s national business conference in February.