By Greg Oehler, Broker/Owner of GMAC Real Estate Fredericksburg
Greetings from Fredericksburg! Our real estate picture here is becoming easier and easier to bring into focus as we progress further into the year. The seven months year-to-date picture is again a mixed bag; while we are doing well in small acreage sales (1-50 acres), we are facing some of the softer market conditions that others in the state also feel in some categories. Let’s start out by taking a look at the Single Family Home category in Fredericksburg first (2008 vs. 2007).
Residential Home Sales
| 2008 Residential Sales Statistics 1/01/2008 to 7/31/2008 | |||||
|
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $69,900 | $2,875,000 | $308,034 | $235,950 | $42,508,760 |
| Selling Price | $60,000 | $2,700,000 | $289,750 | $223,780 | $39,985,523 |
| List/Sold (%) | 76.60% | 103.77% | 94.48% | 95.21% | – |
| Price/Sift ($) | $43.10 | $557.56 | $147.88 | $134.00 | – |
| Days on Market | 23 | 608 | 173 | 146.5 | – |
| 2007 Residential Sales Statistics 1/01/2007 to 7/31/2007 | |||||
|
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $70,000 | $2,975,000 | $326,611 | $230,000 | $40,826,313 |
| Selling Price | $70,000 | $2,800,000 | $311,697 | $222,500 | $38,962,173 |
| List/Sold (%) | 56.01% | 102.22% | 95.32% | 96.72% | – |
| Price/Sift ($) | $48.66 | $617.15 | $153.46 | $134.33 | – |
| Days on Market | 26 | 886 | 149 | 120 | – |
Concerning the above Single Family Residential Sales, I noted the following:
- Average List Price is down $18,577 or 5.6%
- DOM (Days on Market) is up by 24 days or 16%
- No. of Sales is down by 11 Sales or 7.4%
- The Total Sales Price (Inventory Sold) is up by $1,023,000
There are 299 homes currently on the market in Gillespie County (as of 8/5/2008). YTD, we are averaging 19.71 home sales per month, which means we have a 15 month supply of inventory. Typically, an inventory of six months or less indicates a seller’s market.
Residential Lot Sales
There are 162 lots currently available for sale and they are being absorbed at the rate of 4.57 lots per month. Based on the number of lots available, we have about 38 months of inventory. There are still some surprises in this category.
- Average Sales Price is up $9,093 or 14%
- Average DOM is up 96 days or 53%
Usually, when the DOM increases significantly, the Average Sales Price will decline. I noted that the Average List Price of those currently on the market is already down by $6,600 or 8.9%, so I feel like the YTD Average Sales Price will decline from now to the end of the year.
| Available Lot Listings | |||||
|
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $29,500 | $450,000 | $67,874 | $56,000 | $10,995,600 |
| Days on Market | 5 | 1184 | 453 | 389 | – |
| 2008 Lot Sale Statistics 1/01/2008 to 7/31/2008 | |||||
|
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $39,000 | $399,500 | $76,792 | $58,250 | $2,457,350 |
| Selling Price | $39,500 | $350,000 | $74,494 | $57,750 | $2,383,800 |
| List/Sold (%) | 87.61% | 105.50% | 98.68% | 100.00% | – |
| Days on Market | 37 | 785 | 277 | 274.5 | – |
| 2007 Lot Sales Statistics 1/01/2007 to 7/31/2007 | |||||
|
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $39,575 | $245,000 | $67,893 | $50,000 | $1,968,900 |
| Selling Price | $35,320 | $215,000 | $65,401 | $49,000 | $1,896,625 |
| List/Sold (%) | 86.30% | 100.00% | 96.93% | 100.00% | – |
| Days on Market | 31 | 323 | 181 | 226 | – |
The Average List Prices of the lots on the market currently, those sold in 2008 and those sold in 2007 is indicative of fact that we have virtually no lower end lots available. My sense of the market is such that we a great deal of pent up demand for this type of product. However, with current City ordinances of 7,500 square feet for minimum lot sizes, impact fees of $3,000 to $4,000 per lot, plus water and sewer tap fees of $400 each, plus curbing and sidewalk rules, development of this type of product is cost-prohibitive.
I should note that the City is currently investigating proposed ordinance changes that may create incentives which may encourage development of more reasonably-priced lots. Any ordinance changes here are not predicted to occur until later this coming fall at the earliest, thus postponing any projected lot development until the spring of 2009.
Acreage Sales 1-50 Acres
This category presents a surprise or two. The total inventory YTD sales figure is up by almost $300,000, the Average price per Sale is up by over $40,000, and the DOM is down by 112 days or 28%. However, the number of sales is down by 5 sales and the Sales Price to List Price ratio is down from 94.84% to 91.78%. This category is holding it’s own for now, but the SP/LP ratio indicates that Buyers are “sharpening their pencils” before they buy.
| 2008 Land Sales (1-50 Acres) 1/1/2008 to 7/31/2008 | |||||
|
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $39,500 | $950,000 | $213,971 | $166,650 | $11,340,474 |
| Selling Price | $35,000 | $800,000 | $195,376 | $156,000 | $10,354,954 |
| List/Sold (%) | 77.04% | 100.88% | 91.78% | 93.08% | – |
| Days on Market | 2 | 705 | 286 | 236 | – |
| 2007 Land Sales (1-50 Acres) 1/1/2007 to 7/31/2007 | |||||
|
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $29,975 | $675,000 | $183,071 | $180,945 | $10,618,096 |
| Selling Price | $27,000 | $672,500 | $173,404 | $165,000 | $10,057,459 |
| List/Sold (%) | 85.43% | 100.00% | 94.84% | 95.04% | – |
| Days on Market | 17 | 2493 | 398 | 226 | – |
Acreage Sales 51-500 Acres
| 2008 Land Sales (51-500 Acres) 1/01/2008 to 7/31/2008 | |||||
|
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $319,900 | $2,279,600 | $1,284,176 | $1,233,100 | $6,420,880 |
| Selling Price | $304,300 | $2,220,664 | $1,222,778 | $1,199,828 | $6,113,892 |
| List/Sold (%) | 88.73% | 97.95% | 94.84% | 95.12% | – |
| Days on Market | 100 | 741 | 365 | 346 | – |
| 2007 Land Sales (51-500 Acres) 1/01/2007 to 7/31/2007 | |||||
|
| Low | High | Average | Median | Total |
| List Price | $267,993 | $2,500,000 | $985,086 | $800,000 | $14,776,289 |
| Selling Price | $259,824 | $2,300,000 | $920,913 | $675,000 | $13,813,698 |
| List/Sold (%) | 76.56% | 101.88% | 93.12% | 95.54% | – |
| Days on Market | 28 | 604 | 295 | 297 | – |
The first thing I should note is that the YTD sales numbers for this category on 7/31/08 are the same for 6/30/08; that is, there were NO SALES in this category in July! Through 7/31/08, there were 5 sales in this category; for the same period in 2007, there were 15 sales, indicating a 67% decrease in the number of sales.
In terms of Total Sales dollars, $6,114,000 was sold in 2008 vs. $13,400,000 in 2007 representing a 54% decrease. Consequently, there was a 70 day (or 24%) increase in the DOM. Clearly this category of real estate has been adversely affected by the economy in 2008.
Overall Listings vs. Sales
In 2007 (YTD), Gillespie County had 421 new listings at an average price of $271,000 and an average DOM of 290 days. There were 242 sales for a total amount sold of $69,200,000.
In 2008 (YTD), Gillespie County had 573 new listings (an increase of 152 listings or 136% over the number of listings in 2007), at an average price of $256,000 (representing a price decrease of 5.5%). There were 249 sales for a total amount sold of $66,045,000 (representing a decrease in total sales dollars of about 4.6%).
Summary
The good news is that some of our real estate categories are still up! Small acreage sales are even ahead by some yardsticks. In other categories, the tide has ebbed and the caution flag has been run up the pole. There seems to be a lot of product available and Sellers are becoming more negotiable, so it is a great time to buy!
Keep checking The Burg for more market statistics to come or stop for a visit and we can do some custom design analysis for your purchase or sale needs. We are happy to be of assistance.
To read more Fredericksburg real estate news, analysis & insight, visit The Burg online.
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